Wot

13 January 2025
 

London

Text

AI hype - here we go again

Early on in Dominic Sandbrook's excellent book on the 1960s (reference below) he describes the Labour Party manifesto of 1963, "Let's Go with Labour for the New Britain" which promised:
a 'New Britain - mobilizing the resources of technology under a national plan; harnessing our national wealth in brains, our genius for scientific invention and medical discovery; reversing the decline of the thirteen wasted years', and so on. There were promises to set up special Ministries of Technology and of Economic Affairs, which would work on a long-term national plan for the economy, there were pledges to increase National Insurance payments ... commitments to ... build more hospitals.

I was reminded of this whilst reading this morning about Mr Starmer's plans to "mainline" AI "into the UK's veins", increasing 20-fold the amount of AI computing power under public control by 2030 and deploying AI for everything from spotting potholes to freeing up teachers to teach (according to the Grauniad). NHS data will be available (anonymised, of course) for private companies to train their AI, and there will be AI growth zones with fast-tracked planning arrangements for data centres. All of which will lead to a boost to the UK economy worth up to £470bn over the next decade.

When I hear government ministers talk about science & technology I am first reminded of Samuel Johnson - "... like a dog walking on its hind legs. It is not done well; but you are surprised to find it done at all" - who was, of course, talking in a different context. And in the context of not doing things well, what about (to take just one aspect of this "plan") the humungous amounts of electricity needed to power these new data centres, when just last week the CEO of the UK's National Grid was warning that UK datacentre energy consumption is on track to grow by a factor of 5(!) over the next decade. In that way that those who govern us have of just waving away such problems
the government says it will set up a dedicated "AI Energy Council" chaired by the Science and Energy Secretaries. This will work with energy companies "to understand the energy demands and challenges" of its AI plans. (The Register)
So that's alright, then.

The faith in new technologies as an almost magical way of injecting vigour into the economy is a trap into which fell the politicians of the post-war period up to and including the early 1970s.
The faith in aviation and nuclear power as the key technologies of tomorrow during the 1950s and 1960s resembles the optimism around artificial intelligence and quantum computing today. The British state poured vast resources on a long-term basis into these areas. Yet, these programmes rank as some of the worst public policy decisions ever taken. (Kelsey, 2023)

Don't hold your breath. The AI revolution ain't gonna happen this way.

References
Sandbrook, D. (2009) White Heat: A History of Britain in the Swinging Sixties 1964-1970. London: Abacus.
Kelsey, T. (2023) When Missions Fail: lessons in 'high technology' from post-war Britain, Blavatnik School of Government Working Paper, University of Oxford, 2023. DOI: 10.35489/BSG- WP_2023/056